On Friday, spot gold traded around $1,550 an ounce, repairing some of
the damage after slipping a day earlier to its lowest level since May
last year at $1.539.74.
The most notable gold bear, Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, told Reuters on the sidelines the precious metal will go up again, but not for "many, many years."
"I think it's going to go down for years. I think it's in a major bear market," said the Elliott Wave analyst.
Asked for a downside target, Prechter added, "I think it's very much like the NASDAQ when it peaked out in 2000. We're not going to see that high again for many, many years. We haven't so far."
Prechter also compared gold's current declines to the downturn in the U.S. real estate market, which hit price highs in 2006, and to the commodity boom of 2008.
"We haven't seen that high. We're not anywhere close to it, and we won't for many, many years. And the commodity top of 2008. I don't think we'll see that top for many, many years."
As for the "mania" in precious metals, "I think that one ended last year. It' going to go down for a long, long time."
He said technicians often eye healthy trends by price action in their components.
In the case of gold, its satellite, silver, did not make a new high with its advance two years ago to $49.51 an ounce. It only came close, but failed to match its Jan. 1980 record of $50 an ounce.
"So, the fact that silver couldn't make an all-time high, despite so many other investments making all-time highs, it didn't confirm the substantial new high in gold, at more than double its previous peak," he said.
He also pointed to the numerous extreme extrapolations for gold prices to soar to levels like $5,000 and $10,000 an ounce, well beyond its record, as another way to determine a top is in.
The most notable gold bear, Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, told Reuters on the sidelines the precious metal will go up again, but not for "many, many years."
"I think it's going to go down for years. I think it's in a major bear market," said the Elliott Wave analyst.
Asked for a downside target, Prechter added, "I think it's very much like the NASDAQ when it peaked out in 2000. We're not going to see that high again for many, many years. We haven't so far."
Prechter also compared gold's current declines to the downturn in the U.S. real estate market, which hit price highs in 2006, and to the commodity boom of 2008.
"We haven't seen that high. We're not anywhere close to it, and we won't for many, many years. And the commodity top of 2008. I don't think we'll see that top for many, many years."
As for the "mania" in precious metals, "I think that one ended last year. It' going to go down for a long, long time."
He said technicians often eye healthy trends by price action in their components.
In the case of gold, its satellite, silver, did not make a new high with its advance two years ago to $49.51 an ounce. It only came close, but failed to match its Jan. 1980 record of $50 an ounce.
"So, the fact that silver couldn't make an all-time high, despite so many other investments making all-time highs, it didn't confirm the substantial new high in gold, at more than double its previous peak," he said.
He also pointed to the numerous extreme extrapolations for gold prices to soar to levels like $5,000 and $10,000 an ounce, well beyond its record, as another way to determine a top is in.
He added the fact that some investors are starting to liquidate gold
ETFs was another sign that, "People are heading for the exits after
(gold) being very overbought."
In terms of determining a downside target, Prechter said he was not looking for a particular price. Instead, a bottom would be identified by a series of psychological factors.
"Most of the markets will be wrung out. Investors will not be interested in buying again, like 2001 in gold. I remember Baron's (newspaper) ran a long article saying they couldn't find anyone that thought gold was going higher. After interviewing people in the industry, investors, miners, all kinds of people, they all said, 'No, we can't see anything bullish about the fundamentals'".
Conversely, in 2011 when gold reached its record level, "All they could see were bullish fundamentals. And that's how you make a high. It's not carved in stone, but that's my opinion."
Other top analysts shared his opinion. George Davis, managing director and chief technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto said he thought many charts were showing an overall shift in market sentiment out of so-called risk-on/risk-off trades, that included selling off gold holdings.
Craig Johnson, managing director and senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray in Minneapolis told conferees, "If things were falling apart, I would expect gold to rise. But, in fact gold has put in a pretty big top."
In terms of determining a downside target, Prechter said he was not looking for a particular price. Instead, a bottom would be identified by a series of psychological factors.
"Most of the markets will be wrung out. Investors will not be interested in buying again, like 2001 in gold. I remember Baron's (newspaper) ran a long article saying they couldn't find anyone that thought gold was going higher. After interviewing people in the industry, investors, miners, all kinds of people, they all said, 'No, we can't see anything bullish about the fundamentals'".
Conversely, in 2011 when gold reached its record level, "All they could see were bullish fundamentals. And that's how you make a high. It's not carved in stone, but that's my opinion."
Other top analysts shared his opinion. George Davis, managing director and chief technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto said he thought many charts were showing an overall shift in market sentiment out of so-called risk-on/risk-off trades, that included selling off gold holdings.
Craig Johnson, managing director and senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray in Minneapolis told conferees, "If things were falling apart, I would expect gold to rise. But, in fact gold has put in a pretty big top."
